All you need to know about US Elections.


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Uploaded on Oct 16, 2020

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All you need to know about US Elections.

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT US ELECTIONS 2020 INTRODUCTION • The race for the White House has begun in earnest, and the outcome of the 2020 US general election will have an impact around the world. • President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, and Mr. Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, have effectively moved their campaigns indoors, skipping the rallies and rope lines that are typically front and center in an election season. Source: bbc.com What are the main parties? • There are only two parties considered by most voters: the Democrats (the liberal, left-of-centre party) and the Republicans (the conservative, right- of-centre party). • Other "third-party" candidates sometimes participate, with the Libertarian, Green and Independent parties occasionally putting forth a nominee. Source: bbc.com What is happening? • The US presidency is determined by the electoral college. It is not a straight vote count but a state-by-state battle and is a four-year term. • In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 2.8 million more individual votes than incumbent president Donald Trump. • Joe Biden currently has a six-point national polling lead, which would equate to 9 million more votes than Donald Trump based on the 2016 turnout. Source: Sky News Electoral college • It's the term for the officials, "electors", who vote on behalf of the states for president. • The number of electoral college votes per state (electors) is equal to the sum of the state’s seats in the Senate (2 each) and the House of Representatives. • There are 538 electors in the Electoral College with at least 270 votes required for victory. Source: The New York Times Congress • All 435 members in the House of Representatives are up for election (currently 232 Democrat, 198 Republican, 1 Libertarian, 4 vacant). This is a two-year term. • The Senate is comprised of 100 members each with six-year terms; a third are up for election every two years. Currently, the Senate membership is 53 Republican, 45 Democrat, and two independents who vote with the Democrats Source: Wikipedia Covid-19 • Consumer confidence crushed on renewed containment measured implemented by states that had re-opened too quickly. • A vaccine could be a game-changer, but even with a million inoculations a day, it would take a year to complete. • Containment measures will continue through the election. Source: indianexpress.com Jobs • Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania have been hit hard by job losses, worse than the national average. • Jobs growth is plateauing and 31 million peoples’ incomes dropped after the ending of $600 unemployment benefit payment. • President Trump has introduced a new $400 payment, with states contributing 25%, but many can’t afford to. Source: bbc.com Trump's re-election campaign • Campaign slogans: "Keep America Great" and "Promises Made, Promises Kept" • A continuation of the tax cut and deregulation policy thrust from his first term, this time centered on the payroll tax • "America First" worldview equates to prioritizing America's economic interests over leadership roles in global affairs Source: NBC News Biden’s policy stance • Campaign Slogans: "Unite for a Better Future" and "Build Back Better" • He may remove some tariffs on China, which have put up costs for US business and instead offer financial incentives to US companies to bring jobs back to America. • Promoting unionized labor in rebuilding infrastructure roads, bridges, water systems, electricity grid. Source: think.ing.com Three possible scenarios • Trump wins a narrow victory • Policy thrust is low tax, low regulation with some infrastructure spending • A continuation of somewhat unpredictable and impulsive decision making • Biden landslide with Democrats controlling both the House and the Senate • Policy thrust and behaviors identical to above. • Biden wins the presidency, but Senate held by Republicans • Policy thrust is higher taxation for corporates and wealthier/higher incomes with more spending on health/education & infrastructure. Greater regulation of big tech, energy and financial services Source: think.ing.com