Impact of the Tapering to Stock Market.


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Uploaded on Jan 10, 2022

PPT on Impact of the Tapering to Stock Market.

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Impact of the Tapering to Stock Market.

IMPACT OF THE TAPERING TO STOCK MARKET Introduction • When an economy is stressed, that is, the government feels there is a liquidity crunch, the Central Bank buys up a predetermined amount of Government bonds and other assets in order to flush the economy with cash. Source: groww.in History • Now, tapering is not necessarily a new event. However, the first time it happened in an awakened and digitally superior time- 2013- Taper Tantrum took the world by storm. The word ‘Tantrum’ comes in due to the overreaction of investors and stakeholders after the government announced tapering of the quantitative easing program. Source: groww.in Minimal lending rates • The minimal lending rates encouraged more people to take loans, boosted spending, and allowed businesses to increase investment. • Between 2008 and 2015, the U.S Government had pumped in nearly $4.5 trillion into its economy, a figure which was barely $870 billion until 2007. Source: groww.in Infusing capital • It is important to note that infusing capital into the economy to absorb shocks is a short-term solution and can lead to hyperinflation if used for the long term. Source: groww.in Muted Response of the Markets • Part of the reason for the muted response of the markets to the tapering announcement is that the Fed has become increasingly transparent in recent years, signaling the markets well in advance about possible policy moves that will affect interest rates. Source: www.investopedia.com Tapering and Asset Price Bubbles • Since the prices of financial assets—particularly debt instruments such as bonds, but also stocks—tend to be inversely related to interest rates, critics of QE worry that it has created asset price bubbles. Source: www.investopedia.com Rising flow of funds into cryptocurrencies • Hard assets such as real estate also may have been caught in speculative bubbles, driven by low borrowing rates and low returns on financial assets. Likewise, the rising flow of funds into cryptocurrencies may be yet another consequence of QE. Source: www.investopedia.com Tapering to Reduce Inflation • Inflation has been rising, with the all items version of the Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) recording a 6.2% increase during the 12 months through October 2021, up from 5.4% for the 12 months through September 2021. Source: www.investopedia.com From Tapering to Balance Sheet Reduction • QE appears to have just as much impact on the stock market as cutting the Fed funds rate used to have. In this vein, the next big issue for the Fed will be determining when it becomes appropriate to actually start reducing its balance sheet rather than adding to it at a decreasing rate, which is what the current program of tapering entails. That may have a significant impact on interest rates and thus also on the economy and the markets. Source: www.investopedia.com How Does Tapering Work? • To understand how tapering works requires a deeper understanding of QE. When central banks keep short-term interest rates low, it encourages individual borrowers and businesses to take out loans. This boosts economic activity. Source: www.investopedia.com