Uploaded on May 13, 2020
PPT on Impact on Financial markets due to Coronavirus.
Impact on Financial markets due to Coronavirus.
Impact on Financial markets due to Coronavirus Freefall The financial markets have been under much pressure, volatility and uncertainty since COVID- 19. At the end of February 2020, the global equity markets were in a freefall. Referencing financial data, current and historical, the pace that COVID-19 is spreading is much faster than prior epidemics (SARS, swine flu) in a limited time frame. Fall in demand The effect of imports to China have directly affected the export economy of countries around the world. This has an immediate effect within oil, LNG, agricultural goods and metals. In oil, demand from China, the largest net importer of crude oil, took away nearly ten percent of global demand in January. Source: Google Images Global slowdown In just weeks, the Coronavirus pandemic has shaved off nearly a third of the global market cap. The Indian equity market bounced back valiantly, but the Sensex still closed 20% below the peak achieved two months ago. Investors can get some cold comfort that other markets have fallen more. Source: Google Images Impact in Asia The deepest cut to the Asian regional economies remains with China. Japan continues to find solid footing and this outbreak has pushed it off course. For what it’s worth, Japan continues to fall upon unfortunate timing, as it was looking for a boost from the 2020 Olympics. South Korea’s increase in cases poses another threat to the once strong oil and natural gas market. Source: Google Images Crude oil war Making things worse is the crude oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which has injected volatility into other assets. Earlier, only the equity and debt markets were impacted by the Covid-19 scare; now the commodities and currency market are in turmoil due to the crude oil war. America’s WTI crude index prices went negative for the first time in history. Source: Google Images Huge impact Impact of this on global economic growth is going to be huge. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has halved the global gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2020 due to Coronavirus. The disease will obviously impact the Indian economy as well Source: Google Images Impact in India The domestic consumption slowdown, triggered by the failure of large financial institutions such as IL&FS and DHFL, is still lingering. Now we have another situation in the form of the Yes Bank crisis. Though only time will tell how the Yes Bank fiasco will shape up, the revival package for the bank is a good short-term step. Source: Google Images Gold is unstoppable While other commodities are down, gold has gone up because of the demand for a safe haven in uncertainty. The hope of rate cuts by global central bankers is also keeping gold demand intact. Though initial target for gold was $1,700, it can go up to $1,800 if Covid-19 is not contained soon and central bankers are forced to come out with more rate cuts Source: Google Images Falling markets, rising volatility The Dow and S&P 500 have both been seeing drops due to uncertainty around the global coronavirus pandemic since the middle of February as the virus began to spread around the world. The coronavirus has created such uncertainty around the world that two of the largest single day drops in the Dow Jones Industrial Average have been from March of 2020. Source: Google Images
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